Exploring factors for projections

I’m considering making a list of factors for projections, like points, fixtures, head-to-head records, injuries, schedule congestion, and underlying metrics like xG and defense. It’s important to think about how six teams could still have hope based on historical gaps of less than 10 points by March, games in hand, and goal difference. Also, maybe suggesting a Monte Carlo simulation could be useful if the user shares the current table. I should clarify the specific season and teams before proceeding!Crafting an informative response

I want to avoid any misinformation, so I’ll skip naming specific teams. First, I’ll ask which season and which six teams the user is referring to, along with up to which match week they're focused on. It would also be helpful to request a snapshot of the table.

Then, I can provide a framework based on points and Points Per Game (PPG) needed for a typical winning total in the Premier League, which has been around 86-92 points in recent seasons.Creating an evaluation framework

I’m thinking about constructing a thorough evaluation framework for the user, including maximum points remaining, a threshold of "2 points per game" for contention, and "2.2 points" to win. I want to highlight the importance of head-to-head matchups, goal difference tie-breakers (typically needing at least +25 by March), and metrics like non-penalty expected goals difference.

I’ll suggest a quick cheat sheet that factors in points per game, maximum points, goal difference, recent form, and how many games are left against top teams. If the user shares the current table, I can offer to compute projections with a small Python script based on expected goals or Elo ratings.Offering an analysis framework

I’m thinking about providing a minimal code snippet, but it might not be necessary. I want to outline likely scenarios, noting that contention often narrows down to 2-3 teams by April. Gaps greater than 8 points with 10 matches left make it tough to catch up unless there are games in hand along with head-to-head matchups.

I’ll point out potential factors that could swing the competition, like managerial changes, winter injuries, or the January transfer window, although I'll keep this generic. I’ll format this in a structured way with a brief header and bullet points, while also including a clarifying question for the user.